Is Hillary the Best Shot?

Hillary, Obama, and Edwards are all senators. As mentioned in the The Congressional Disadvantage, senators don’t usually go on to become presidents. If we ignore Richardson, which the media seems to be doing, that might make Hillary the most electable candidate. In addition to being a two term senator, she’s a former two term first lady. As first lady, she did have access to a lot more of what it takes to run this country than she does having served as a senator. The other two senators can’t say that. This is definitely something she’s riding on, but will it carry her?

I don’t think the so called swing voters will vote for her – at least not those swing voters old enough to remember the Clinton administration and all its controversies. Talk about baggage! She carries the baggage reasonably well and doesn’t do much apologizing for past things (e.g. the Iraq vote which Obama continues to harp on). She doesn’t apologize for a reason; she doesn’t want to show weaknesses. Never let em see you sweat!

Here comes Iowa

And all the drams! All the excitement! I can hardly stand it. Who will come out ahead? Who will fall behind? What surprises will turn out there? It’s the first big drama of the stage play we call the 2008 elections.

While Iowa has kind of a checked past as an early indicator for the Democrats, it was spot on in 2004. Remember Kerry? It did well for him and Edwards in 2004 but he also won New Hampshire. And the Iowa results pretty much sank Howard Dean that year.

The Iowa Caucus is more important to Dems. Republicans seem to downplay their Iowa caucus, which might explain why Rudy has barely been seen in Iowa this election season. Given John Edwards success in 2004, I wonder if we’ll see a surprise there in his favor? Well stay tuned for Thursday.

Obama Experience Versus Hype

The Clinton camp has made much of Barack Obama’s lack of experience in U.S. politics. Obama tries to deflect that by talking spin about ‘a fresh new vision for America’ and all that BS. It’s not surprising that the Obama campaign wants to play down the lack of experience – after all, there isn’t much there and they know it. That’s where the spin artist comes in with the counterbalance. And we have the other O (Oprah) now lending her ever fluctuating weight to the Obama campaign.

How much can Obama’s million dollar smile and billion dollar star power counterbalance the lack of experience? Just how important is experience in U.S. politics for a presidential candidate. VERY important and the voters know it. As noted in The Congressional Disadvantage, voters rely on experienced candidates to be presidents. That’s an historical fact.

So what do you have in place of experience? In Obama’s case: nice sounding spin. But voters should know by now that what the candidate says during the campaign may or may not be what will materialize if the candidate becomes president. Just look at George Bush in 2000. He campaigned for, among other things, smaller government and decreased government spending. Not only has neither one of those things materialized, but the opposite has occurred.

Now granted, it’s not fair to compare Obama to Bush, but you can look at any president in the last 50 years and see the same pattern. The same pattern of broken campaign promises. So in the absence of believable campaign rhetoric, we look to experience in choosing our presidents. Experience is the one thing there for everyone to see: supporters and critics. Spin it any way you want, but Obama has little of that.

Demented Canadian Santa Claus

Talk about a “nasty Santa”. Someone in the Canadian force of Santas who write letters to children went wrong, very wrong. Canada Post employees and volunteers write these letters but someone decided to write obscene letters to kids instead of a good Santa letter. That is so wrong. You know the Christmas holiday has run its course when you read something like this, eh?

Canada seeks author of nasty letters from Santa

Germany’s Strange Ban on Scientology

Germany is on the move to ban Scientology. Now you might say, who cares? Scientology is after all a strange cult which deserves little or no attention – much less sympathy. What makes Scientology so controversial that a country decides to ban it?

First of, we are not talking about a free country here. We’re talking about Germany where free thinking and intellectual discourse can be illegal (e.g. holocaust denial being a punishable crime there). Americans always think of things in terms of the US and its religious freedoms. Forget it! Germany has no such freedoms.

I think the biggest problem people have with Scientology is also one of the things that attract some people to it: it’s without a deity. Furthermore, it was created by one person in 1952 (a Sci Fi writer no less). It’s not even old or anything.

Aside from all this, the real scary thing here is Germany. They have said the church of Scientology is in conflict with their constitution, but have not elaborated on that and have remained very vague on the whole issue. If you’re going to ban something, I think you’d better be specific!

Scientology responds to German ban proposal

Is Renting more Prestigious now?

George Bush has tried to bail out the Subprimes. What do we give him? C Minus for some minimal effort? Even he said it’s not a complete solution, only a band-aid on a big problem.

I wonder if this will finally deflate the bogus “American Dream” image of home ownership. Home ownership at any cost and you’ll be living your American Dream! Will people still buy that now?

It used to be that renters were considered the bottom of the home barrel. Renters were the scum of the neighborhood, the low life. I wonder if that’s true anymore? Renters in most places have to jump through more hoops than the people who signed onto those subprime loans. Except for the real slums, renters have to submit to credit checks and provide income verification. Much of the stringency that is placed on renters was simply overlooked in the subprime loans.

What will that do to some of the ‘bubble markets’ like Florida and California? Will this create ’subprime ghettos’? It’s beginning to look like renting is not such a bad option after all.

No Quick Fix for Subprime Mortgages