Michael Bloomberg Rumors

Rumors have been swirling about Michael Bloomberg jumping in the [already crowded] presidential ring as a possible 3rd party candidate. Just yesterday, this article appeared in the Wall Street Journal. Is the time right for a 3rd party candidate?

History says it’s not very likely. The last time a 3rd party candidate took the presidency was 1860 when Lincoln and his Republicans supplanted the Whigs. At the time, apparently, the Republicans were a minor party. Hasn’t happened since. There’s been some attempts recently: Jesse Jackson 1988, Ross Perot 1992, Ralph Nader 2000, to name a few. But we know how those ended up. In those cases, they got some recognition and perhaps a footnote in the history books. If that’s all you’re after, Mr. Bloomberg, then fine, because that’s probably all you’ll get.

He is billing himself as a Centrist. Trouble is, he’s been a Democrat, a Republican, and now an Independent. While he says he’s had trouble with both parties (which I can understand), this might be seen as a weakness. An indecisiveness.

Well the other thing you get from running as a 3rd party of course is the “spoiler effect”. Such as was the case with Nader in 2000. But where these rumors keep coming from who knows? Bloomberg himself very specifically denies that he plans to run:

“I’m not going to be a candidate,” he told NBC’s “Today Show.” “I am not a candidate.”

There, doesn’t that end that? Doesn’t make the Bloomberg about as likely as a Gore run?

Bloomberg says not presidential candidate

Why so Complex?

Since I don’t live in Iowa (I think I drove through it once) I didn’t know much about the caucus rules. I ran across this article which describes them in some detail. Basically, the Democrats use complicated, arcane rules to govern their proceedings:

What you’ll do is get up out of your seat and you’ll go walk to the corner or space by the wall designated for the candidate of your choice,” Chelsea Waliser, an organizer for Sen. Barack Obama, told potential caucus go-ers during a recent Obama rehearsal caucus.

This is describing the so called “Visibility Threshold”. By contrast, the Republicans use a simple straightforward (tried and true) methodology: secret ballot. Why do the democrats have to make this so bizarre and complex?

Democratic caucus rules also make polling very difficult. Unlike a regular election, when a voter can immediately leave the polling place after he or she casts her ballot, a caucus go-er may have to spend hours caucusing before his or her vote counts. Plus, caucus go-ers without a viable group may end up switching their support to a candidate who had been trailing in standard polls.

Here’s a little rule that applies to most things in life: if you want people to do something, make it easy for them to do. This sounds like a lot of trouble and it looks like a time consuming game. Who has time for games, O Dems? I suppose it does make the element of surprise stronger but it did John Kerry no good in 2004.

Arcane rules have huge impact on outcome